Mixed macro trends in Sweden August 2022

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There are mixed sentiments in the public opinion and the current stats from job market figures and household savings in Sweden.

On the positive side we can see that the unemployment rate is low, 6,4% in July which is 1,6 percent points lower than the previous year. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the same period is 7,4% which means that July is a month with historically low unemployment rate compared to the rest of the year.
 

Unemployment rate, persons aged 15–74

On a semi-positive side we can see that the households financial net worth dropped 10% in the 2nd quarter of 2022, this primarily due to big negative movements in the stock market (-17,6% in Q2 2022) combined with a decline in housing prices. But we can at the same time se an all time high of savings in traditional bank accounts which is a much safer short time storage of wealth with high volatility in the markets, the total deposits in bank accounts reached 97 billion SEK during the 2nd quarter of 2022, on average 12,9 kSEK per person between 15 – 74 years.
 

Value change in households’ financial net wealth and Affärsvärlden’s General Index

On the negative side we have information from the Swedish Institute of Economic Research who predicts a grim fall / winter due to high inflation rate and increasing mortgage rates combined with expected high energy prices and demand during the fall and winter. The energy problems is partly due to the continuing Ukraine invasion and decreased energy supply in Sweden after prematurely shutting down fully functioning power plants before having a reliable supply for other sources.
One of our debt collection partners summarize this well (in Swedish) on the bottom link below.

Links:

Labour Force Survey from SCB:
https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/labour-market/labour-force-surveys/labour-force-surveys-lfs/pong/statistical-news/labour-force-surveys-lfs-july-2022/

Savings Barometer from SCB:
https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/financial-markets/financial-accounts/savings-barometer/pong/statistical-news/savings-barometer-2nd-quarter-2022/

Sergel Groups press release:
https://www.mynewsdesk.com/se/sergel_kredittjanster_ab/pressreleases/klara-av-laagkonjunkturen-3199066

Market effects from Russia invading Ukraine

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We have all followed the horrible actions in Ukraine the past two plus months and hope it will come to an end soon. The invasion has affected us in different ways, some more than other of course with millions of people fleeing their home country not knowing where they’ll end up or for how long and others forced to defend their country with their own lives at stake.

Our lives here in the Nordics however have run its usual course and the NPL market is still active in the Nordics, just as before. Sweden and Finland are discussing the possibility of becoming NATO members with Finland planning to have a public vote.

Macro trends in Europe since the invasion Feb 24

The Russian MOEX index collapsed the days leading up to the invasion and was down 44% between the 16 and 24 Feb (this after already have been on a decline since October), it has since recovered a bit and is now (4 May) “only” down by 5% since Feb 16.

The Nordic indexes has changed with between -3,2 and +9,6 percent since the invasion (24 Feb to 4 May) with Sweden (OMXS30) declining the most and Denmark (OMXC20) gaining the most. Sweden and Finland (OMXH25) both declined over 8% the days leading up to the invasion (16 – 24 Feb) and then continuing down the following two weeks with Finland dipping 16% 16 Feb – 8 Mar and Sweden almost 13%.

We can also see similar effects in the bigger markets in Europe where UK (FTSE100) and Germany (DAX) both declining between 5 and 8 percent leading up to the invasion and Germany continuing down the weeks after with a total decline of 16,5% (16 Feb – 8 Mar). Both markets have recovered fairly well with UK at +4% and Germany at -1,8% since the invasion (24 Feb – 4 May).

Continuous growth in the unsecured consumer loans in Sweden

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New report from SCB showing an average growth just over 5,5% annually between 2010 and 2021 in the unsecured consumer loans in Sweden – the niche banks have contributed with 63% of the total growth and are the fastest growing category in the market. The total outstanding debt is now adding up to 273 billion SEK, which represents 23% of the Swedish national debt.

During the past year the growth has been slightly higher than on average with 6,4% comparing January 2022 with 2021.

More information in the following article from SCB (in Swedish): https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/redaktionellt/hushall-valjer-andra-aktorer-nar-de-lanar-till-konsumtion

National debt figures from Riksgälden: https://www.riksgalden.se/en/press-and-publications/publications/government-debt/2021/swedens-central-government-debt-december-2021/

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Retail expectations highest in a decade while household economics expectations in decline and new record in number of Swish transactions in a day

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Retail indicator from the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (NIER) is at its highest point since 2010 and has been climbing a lot since the pandemic hit and it is now at its highest point since 2010. If we look at the past 6 months it has increased with 7,3% which gives an optimistic view about the upcoming sales figures leading up to Christmas.In the meantime the micro household index from NIER has declined with 13,6% during the past 6 months. This is the first big drop in the micro household index since the pandemic hit when the index went down by a whopping 24% in just 2 months. Consumer micro index is now at the same levels as before Covid-19 started having an impact in Europe. 

NIER conducts Konjunkturbarometern (Eng. The Economic Tendency Indicator) every month where they ask industry and people about their interpretation about the recent development and their outlook on the future. NIER conducts Konjunkturbarometern on behalf of the Swedish government and is part of the official statistics in Sweden.The retail index is based on a questionnaire asked every month to people working in the industry and the micro household index is questions about peoples believes about their private economic situation.  Record breaking number of transactions in the Swedish payment solution app Swish where 3,4 million transactions where done Saturday after black Friday. Swish is used to transfer money and has gained traction during the pandemic as a payment solution in B2C payments as well, during October B2C payments stood for 1/3 of the transactions in the application. 

Links:

https://www.konj.se/english/publications/economic-tendency-survey/economic-tendency-survey/2021-11-26-retail-trade-alone-rises-in-november.html

https://omni.se/swishrekord-efter-black-friday-och-lonehelg/a/rEV17a

https://www.swish.nu/about-swish

Nordic Market Overview, H2 2021

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Market overview:

In 2020, we had significantly lower prices for Forward Flows than before and a maximum of 6-12 months agreement compared to the previous standard which was 12-24 and up to 36 months. Large number of transactions available in the Nordic market for both OO and FF and especially within Bank & Finance. Requests for longer contracts are again up on the table with up to 24 months while the buying side tries to reduce this more to 12 + 12 months arrangement and instead of having the opportunity to adjust the price after 12 months.

The price level of unsecured loans in the segment 300 00 – 500 000 SEK has remained low while we see that there is a lot of competition now for the lower amounts, which once again leads to higher prices in that segment. At the moment, there are too many unsecured loan providers on the market and those with slightly more generous credit terms will have trouble selling off their NPL portfolios to the price levels that they calculated with.

Large increase in Sweden in the number of applications for debt restructuring but at the same time also an increased amount of rejections as many applicants have not made sufficient attempts to sort out their finances first. KFM has informed about this now after the summer. In Finland, tax refunds have been at record levels, which also had a positive impact on  return of investments during August and September. Norway has had a steady collection and flow of cases for most of the Corona and although there are some concerns in that market that there will be backlogs around consumers’ debt picture, the prospects are good there. In Denmark, there have been a lot of large portfolio deals within Bank & Finance during the summer and the start of the autumn. A tightening within the credit terms for e-commerce has resulted in several Nordic e-retailers choosing to leave Denmark now and leaving OO-portfolios available on attractive levels.

Increased competition in the Nordic region regarding the purchase of NPL portfolios as several of NPL buyers have been reloaded with funds to invest either through new bonds or through collaborations with major institutional investors. Most players also believe that there will be consolidation in the debt collection and NPL market within the next few years. Exciting times ahead!

Please feel free to contact us for more dialogues and opportunities around the Nordic NPL market.

/COO, Johan Gustafsson

Household loans and savings increasing in Sweden during the past quarter

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We can see an increase in households’ total loan stock where the annual growth rate has increased during the pandemic, this is probably due to the temporary exemption from amortization rule which were introduced to help households coupe with a potential financial crisis during covid-19. This growth rate is estimated to decrease going forward.

At the same time households’ savings has also increased where we during the second quarter of 2021 can see a growth in total financial assets of almost 10% compared to end of firsts quarter 2021, the interesting takeaway here is that we see a fairly stable mix of asset types compared to same period last year – which means that people have been saving almost as much in traditional bank accounts as the stock market has increased the past year.

You can find more details below from SCB, Statistics Sweden, in their latest report on financial accounts in Sweden.

In Swedish:
https://scb.se/hitta-statistik/statistik-efter-amne/finansmarknad/finansrakenskaper/finansrakenskaper-kvartal-och-ar/pong/statistiknyhet/finansrakenskaper-andra-kvartalet-2021/

In English:
https://scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/financial-markets/financial-accounts/financial-accounts-quarterly-and-annual/pong/statistical-news/financial-accounts-second-quarter-2021/

No more amortization exception in Sweden as a result of covid effects

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After almost one and a half year of financial relief in form of exception from mortgages amortization for people with high loan-to-value and debt-to-income ratios Finansinspektionen (FI) has now decided to end this on August 31.

This shows in one way that the Swedish people haven’t been as financially damaged by the effects from covid-19 as first feared, but FI is also worried that a continuation of this exception would lead to increased mortgages and housing prices.

More information in the link below.
English: https://www.fi.se/en/published/press-releases/2021/mortgages-must-be-amortised-again/
Swedish: https://www.fi.se/sv/publicerat/pressmeddelanden/2021/bolan-ska-amorteras-igen/

Nordic market overview – Covid-19 effect on debt collection and B2B

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Most of us is back on track again after a well-deserved summer holiday. We still live in extraordinary times with the pandemic situation still not yet fully under control. But what is the trends in the Nordics at the moment and what different effects can we start to see. It is clear that the Nordic countries have had different strategies to take care of the pandemic situation and the companies and consumers in each country have also had different challenges.

At the moment when we scan the market for trends, we would like to highlight the following areas and recommend you to take part of the articles below:

Finland

Amendments to business development aid – continue to end of 2021

Norway

2 milliarder lavere inkassogjeld – bransjen-frykter-morketall

Sweden

Fler kan hamna hos Kronofogden

Are you interested to know more about Nordic trends or discuss possible NPL solutions in the Nordics, don’t hesitate to contact us. 

NPL PORTFOLIOS IN THE NORDICS – OUR EXPERTISE

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