Nordic Market Overview, September 2024

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Nordic Market Overview, September 2024

Stockholm 2024-09-18

Still the buyer’s market

Market overview:

We at Helix Ice continue to share our knowledge regarding the latest trends and business information for the Nordic NPL market.

Too much is going in the Nordic NPL market at the moment to wait with an ordinary NMO Half year report from our side.  Who´s buying in the Nordics and when is it the best time to sell NPL portfolios? That’s still the two most frequent asked questions right now that I´m being asked from sellers of NPL portfolios and with less buyers active in Europe and the Nordic some segments are actually not having more than a couple of possible buyers right now. The need for other solutions than the old traditional Forward flow and One off is obvious and we also see that the Nordic market now have got used to different type of securitizations. NOBA, Marginalen Bank, Hoist and TF Bank have all communicated different type of structured solutions for the NPL market and we continue to see performing loans being sold and with that the consolidation of the Bank & Finance market continues. We already mentioned in our last NMO that we probably would see this and it´s always great to be right. In June we attended the Global ABS in Barcelona, a great arena to meet up and discuss new and established type of structured solutions and to share knowledge between industries on how to make investors feel comfortable with the different setups. Read more about our findings from that visit here: Global ABS 2024 – Helix Ice 

In the end of September, we will participate at the DDC Investor Summit in Prague and we are really looking forward to several interesting meetings and sessions. Let´s meet up for a 1:1 meeting if you plan to be there.

New collaborations, securitization structures to finance bigger deals and a more open-minded view on new type of deal setups makes the Nordics a very interesting region at the moment and we have continued to help our investors to invest in both Telecom and Bank & Finance portfolios the last 12 months, still with focus on the unsecured B2C debts. Second quarter of the year is always interesting, especially in Sweden, when it comes to the collection rates as we have two tax return months during that time period. We are very pleased with the outcome of the tax return this year and now see more and more positive signals in the different Nordic economies. We continue to keep up the close collaboration with our different debt collection servicing partners and keep a focus on high activity rates to keep up the contact with the debtors to help them find the best possible way to get debt free.

Feel free to contact us for a dialogue regarding the NPL market in the Nordic region and to discuss different type of securitization solutions, market opportunities or different type of collaborations. And if you plan to visit the Nordics, lets meet up in Stockholm, Copenhagen, Oslo or Helsinki to discuss your views on the latest trends in the NPL portfolio business. We at Helix Ice are always interested in sharing knowledge regarding the upcoming NPL transactions across the Nordics and talk about different type of solutions for how you can get best possible return of investment.

My experience at Global ABS 2024: a journey through the world of structured finance

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Ever heard of the Global ABS conference? It’s the powerhouse event for structured finance professionals, and I was thrilled to attend this year’s edition in Barcelona. For 28 years, this event has been the go-to place for professionals looking to network, learn, and make deals. With around 5,000 attendees and 100 exhibitors, the conference offered an unparalleled opportunity to dive into the latest market trends, regulatory developments, and innovative financial products. Here are some of the key highlights and my personal takeaways from the event.

Some of the companies represented at the conference were SEB, Kredinor and Danske Bank from the Nordic market, together with international players like the investment banks JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, and Santander CIB. Rating agencies such as Moody’s and Fitch were also present, along with a significant number of law firms, which had a very strong representation among the attendees. This diverse mix of participants highlighted the global reach and influence of the conference.

Day one: Diving into global markets and Fintech innovations

Seminars Attended:

  • Global ABS markets: The discussion around public-private partnerships made me realize the potential for these collaborations to drive market growth. The dynamic between domestic and international demand and how prudential regulation influences bank vs non-bank supply was a hot topic.
  • Advancements in Fintech: I was captivated by the latest developments in Fintech, particularly the integration of Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) and AI in capital markets. One speaker humorously quipped, “AI won’t take your job, but someone who knows how to use it might!”
  • Using securitisation to finance the transition: This session was eye-opening, highlighting how ABS can support green initiatives like wind and solar energy. The discussion on the challenges of financing electric vehicles was particularly engaging.

My thoughts: The first day was an eye-opener. I learned a lot more about structured finance and how ABS can be utilized to spread risk in investments. The atmosphere was buzzing with energy and excitement. The discussions on how ABS can support ESG initiatives were both enlightening and motivating.

Day two: pitching, partnering, and emerging opportunities

Seminars Attended:

  • Emerging asset classes: The session on digital infrastructure, music, and sports securitization was fascinating. The idea of securitizing music royalties opened my eyes to how finance can innovate in unexpected areas.
  • Evolution of specialty finance: This seminar provided a deep dive into the risk vs. reward landscape of specialty finance.
  • ESG Methodologies, Analytics & Disclosure: The importance of standardized ESG disclosures across countries was a key takeaway. The debate on regulatory alignment was particularly spirited.

My Thoughts: The second day was a whirlwind of meetings and pitches. I had the chance to present Helix Ice’s services and our upcoming products to potential partners and industry peers. The seminars offered a glimpse into how ABS can be leveraged to create new market opportunities and asset classes.

Day Three: Shaping the Future of Finance

Future leaders workshop: Being invited to the Future Leaders Workshop was a highlight of the conference. This initiative is designed for those identified as the next generation of leaders in capital markets. Two people stood out in particular: Janet Oram from the seminar What does excellence look like? and Rob Ford from the seminar What I wish I’d known. Janet’s insights on defining and achieving excellence were incredibly inspiring, while Rob’s retrospective on his career provided valuable lessons and practical advice.

We had some great discussions among us participants, and I got to explore differences and commonalities such as work-life balance and career motivations with like-minded professionals at similar levels of experience from around the world.

Exploring Barcelona

Beyond the conference, I had an amazing time exploring Barcelona for the first time. The city’s stunning architecture, long sandy beaches, and delicious food—empanadas, tapas, and paella—really hit the spot. I enjoyed the mix of old and new architecture throughout the city; it truly felt like the city has grown organically over time. The vibrant atmosphere of the local markets and the energy of the city’s nightlife added to the charm of my visit.

Conclusion

Overall, the Global ABS 2024 was an incredible experience that enriched my understanding of structured finance and provided numerous opportunities for networking and professional growth. From deep dives into global market dynamics and fintech advancements to exploring new asset classes and participating in the Future Leaders Workshop, the conference was a blend of education, inspiration, and practical insights.

Thinking about attending Global ABS next year? Here’s my advice: dive in with an open mind, be ready to network, and don’t be afraid to ask questions. I left Barcelona with new knowledge, valuable connections, and a refreshed perspective on the future of finance. I’m already looking forward to next year’s event!

By: Leo Brouwers, Senior investment manager

Nordic Market Overview, H1 2024

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Stockholm 2024-04-03

A lot of changes – we love it!

Market overview:

We at Helix Ice continue to share our knowledge regarding the latest trends and business information for the Nordic NPL market.

Who is buying in the Nordics and when is it the best time to sell NPL portfolios? That’s the two most frequent asked questions right now and I have had several calls and meetings the last months with sellers that needs to sell but really can’t find a perfect match out there. And now we are talking about established sellers in both Bank & Finance and Telecom. We also notice that old portfolios are coming back out again to the market to test if the appetite for that portfolio have changed since last time. Last month we attended NPL Europe 2024 in London, yet another great event arranged by SmithNovak, and as always it gave us a lot of market insight and a chance to connect with new potential co-investors but also to meet up and discuss different opportunities with colleagues in the business. At that event and in meetings after, we got confirmation on that a lot of deals are being withdrawn from the market because the sellers and buyers can find the perfect match. Approximately up to 70-80% of the deals have been withdrawn the last 12 months and with that it takes of course a much longer time to get a deal closed but also that we have bigger volumes to choose from with a buyer perspective.

At the same time the big shift continues in the Nordics with some debt collection companies leaving different markets and some buyers are stepping down and changing focus to be more of a servicing company than a buyer and vice versa. Axactor, Intrum and Lowell are all examples of that and we also now see more opportunities regarding M&A in the Nordic market. Within the next nine months we believe that we will see new ownerships and new collaborations within debt collection and debt purchase in the Nordics announced. Very interesting times right now in the Nordics with a lot of changes and we love to be around that type of environment!

New collaborations, securitization structures to finance bigger deals and a more open-minded view on new type of deal setups makes the Nordics to a very interesting region at the moment and we have continued to help our investors to invest in both Telecom and Bank & Finance portfolios the last 6 months, still with focus on the unsecured debts. First quarter of the year is always challenging when it comes to the collection rates in the Nordics but we are still in line on almost all NPL portfolios. This as we work closely with our different servicing partners and keep a focus on high activity rates to keep up the contact with the debtors to help them find the best possible way to get debt free.

Feel free to contact us for a dialogue regarding the NPL market in the Nordic region and to discuss different type of securitization solutions, market opportunities or different type of collaborations. And if you plan to visit the Nordics, lets meet up in Stockholm, Copenhagen, Oslo or Helsinki to discuss your views on the latest trends in the NPL portfolio business. We at Helix Ice are always interested in sharing knowledge regarding the upcoming NPL transactions across the Nordics and talk about different type of solutions and how you can get best possible return of investment.

Our investment structure in the Nordics is now well established!

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Third year in a row for Helix Ice with deals worth +100 MEUR in the Nordics and we can now see that the type of structure, that we introduced to the Nordic market in the beginning of 2021, is now in similar arrangements being established by others as well. 

We have administrated the launch of four different SPV:s and have during 2023 seen a dramatic change in how the Nordic market have changed when it comes to investors, buyers and servicers. 

Hoist Finance, North Wall Capital and Cerberus have in different type of deals acquired Nordic NPL portfolios and we know that some other, more unofficial deals with other investors in the background, also have been taking place. Tenders regarding NPL portfolios in the Nordics, especially within Bank & Finance, now have less buyers involved and we also see that some banks are looking into other solutions than the traditional way of working with auctions and bidders. For example, Lowell and Resurs Bank announced a partnership with a securitization solution for the NPL portfolios in Sweden, Finland and Denmark. That type of structure is similar to the ones we have been setting up and we have noticed a big attention from other banks in the Nordics to look into these solutions.

We have kept a share of about 85% of our deals value in the Bank & Finance segment and 15% in the Telecom segment. Looking at the deal pipeline for 2024 and the dialogues that are taking place right now, we believe that the Bank & Finance segment in the Nordic region is still the most interesting when it comes to opportunities for investors as a lot of banks are looking to sell of their NPL portfolios.

We have had challenges when it comes to the collection rates in the Nordics but are still in line or just above our forecasted collections on almost all NPL portfolios. This as we work closely with our different servicing partners and keep a focus on high activity rates to keep up the contact with the debtors to help them find the best possible way to get debt free.

Feel free to contact us for a dialogue regarding the NPL market in the Nordic region and to discuss different type of securitization solutions, market opportunities or different type of collaborations. And if you plan to attend the NPL Europe 2024 in London hosted by SmithNovak in the beginning of March, lets meet up and discuss your views on the latest trends in the NPL portfolio business. We will be there as we see it as a perfect place to share and gain new knowledge regarding the upcoming NPL transactions across Europe and talk about different type of solutions.

Helix Ice to Sponsor the NPL Europe 2024 summit

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Helix Ice is proud to be a sponsor of the NPL Europe 2024 summit taking place on 6-7 March in London (see link).

Hosted by SmithNovak, the 14th edition of this international summit provides a platform for the Non-Performing Loans professionals from all over Europe to network and discuss the latest opportunities and market challenges.

More information here: www.smithnovak.com/npl.

Nordic Market Overview, half year report H2 2023

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Stockholm 2023-11-23
Market overview: We at Helix Ice continue to share our knowledge regarding the latest trends and business information for the Nordic NPL market.

In our last NMO we had a cliffhanger about that July started really well. We helped our investors to win home both Forward flow an On Off deals just before the summer vacation started and after that we have had a very interesting autumn when it comes to new business opportunities.

The Nordic NPL market continue to be the buyer’s market and we have seen several examples now the last year of sellers adjusting their expectations and accepting a lower price on portfolios than before. The forecasted NPL volumes, especially in the bank & finance segment, for the coming 12 months in the Nordics are on really high levels and our last business trip to London gave us similar information regarding most of the other European markets as well. We can now also see that potential co-investors are ready to invest in the Nordics on single digit level when it comes to expectations regarding the annual percentage rates. Intrum have left a handful of their European markets and are now in the phase of leaving more markets and to focus even more on debt collection servicing, Kredinor is mentioned as one of the buyers that now are adjusting their FF contracts. With a couple of the bigger players taking a step back it opens up for others to make some great deals and for new investors to step into the Nordics. Very interesting future, we would say.

Collection forecast is still met in most of the deals, but we absolutely see the effect of the macro-economic situation across the Nordics and are working closely with our servicing partners to find the best way forward to keep up the contact with our debtors. 

Please feel free to contact us for more dialogues and opportunities around the Nordic NPL market, we love to share our knowledge.

Have a great Christmas shopping!

/COO, Johan Gustafsson

September update – Swedish household economics overview

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Understanding Household Debt in Sweden

In recent years, Sweden has seen significant developments in its economic landscape, particularly in the realm of household debt. This blog post provides an overview of key reports and statistics, shedding light on the current state of affairs in Sweden’s financial sector.

SCB: Labour Force Surveys

The Labour Force Surveys offers insights into the Swedish labour market. As of July 2023, the unemployment rate stands at 6.2%, a slight decrease from the previous year. The employment rate has seen an increase of 1.3%, demonstrating a positive trend in employment figures. These statistics play a pivotal role in assessing the overall economic health of the nation.

SCB: Consumer Price Index

In July 2023, Sweden experienced an inflation rate of 9.3%, indicating a significant increase in the general prices of goods and services compared to the previous year.

 Notable increases in charter holiday and food prices were primary drivers of inflation. These price hikes were likely influenced by post-pandemic travel demand and supply chain disruptions, as well as factors affecting food production costs.

Despite rising prices in certain categories, falling electricity prices played a role in stabilizing the overall consumer price index. Decreasing electricity costs were influenced by various factors, including energy market dynamics and regulatory changes.

 Economic Tendency Indicator

The Economic Tendency Indicator for August 2023 experienced a decline of 2.5 points, settling at 85.2. This drop was primarily attributed to subdued sentiments in the service sector, which has become the most pessimistic part of the business sector. The manufacturing industry, on the other hand, saw a slight decline, mainly due to diminished expectations for future production.

SCB: Swedish Debt Analysis

A detailed analysis of Swedish household debt reveals that Sweden ranks third in the EU for highest per capita debt. Over the years, easy access to loans and low-interest rates have fuelled a significant increase in Swedish household debt, impacting financial stability. While the majority of debts are housing-related, the vulnerability of households to interest rate hikes is a cause for concern, largely due to a preference for variable interest rates. Even small rate hikes can have substantial financial implications.

FI: Mortgage Report

Swedish mortgagors are grappling with growing financial pressure due to rising interest rates and inflation. New mortgagors, in particular, are affected, with an average of 12% of their disposable income going toward interest payments. This is nearly triple the 2021 percentage and represents the highest level recorded in FI’s surveys. Interest rate payments are expected to climb to nearly 16% of disposable income by the end of 2023, further intensifying financial stress.

FI has implemented measures like amortization requirements and a mortgage cap to reduce risks associated with household borrowing. This has led new mortgagors to borrow less and opt for more affordable homes.

Sources:

https://www.fi.se/en/published/news/2023/20232/rising-interest-costs-putting-pressure-on-mortgagors/

https://www.scb.se/hitta-statistik/artiklar/2023/svenskar-har-hoga-skulder-jamfort-med-andra-europeer/ (in Swedish)

https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/prices-and-consumption/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-cpi/pong/statistical-news/consumer-price-index-cpi-july-2023/

https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/labour-market/labour-force-surveys/labour-force-surveys-lfs/

https://www.konj.se/english/publications/economic-tendency-survey/economic-tendency-survey/2023-08-30-gloomy-signals-from-the-service-sector.html

Helix Ice at NPL Europe 2023

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One month ago Helix Ice attended the annual NPL Europe conference which was organised by Smith Novak in London. It was a great opportunity to meet other people from the industry, both investors, branch colleagues and technology experts.

We always strive to stay up to date with relevant current technology developments and the hottest trend right now is of course AI and primarily large language models (such as ChatGPT), reinforced learning (advanced machine learning), generative AI (create images etc. based on text requests) among others. I asked ChatGPT to write an article based on selected posts on LinkedIn that attendees had written based on their experiences from the conference we went to:

At a recent NPL conference, attendees discussed the state of the market in Europe and shared their thoughts on various topics related to non-performing loans (NPLs).

One of the main topics of discussion was the impact of COVID-19 on the NPL market. Attendees noted that while the pandemic had initially caused a slowdown in the market, things were starting to pick up again as economies reopened and stimulus measures helped to support businesses and households. However, there was some concern about the potential for a wave of NPLs to hit the market in the coming months as government support measures expire.

Another topic of discussion was the differences between the Nordic region and the rest of Europe in regards to the NPL market. Attendees noted that the Nordic countries tend to have lower levels of NPLs compared to other European countries, and that this is due in part to their strong economies and well-functioning financial systems. Additionally, the Nordic countries have a culture of transparency and cooperation between lenders, which has helped to mitigate the impact of NPLs on the financial system.

The role of technology in the NPL market was also discussed by attendees. Many noted that technology has the potential to streamline the NPL resolution process and make it more efficient, but that there are still challenges to be addressed, such as data privacy concerns and the need for standardization across different markets.

Finally, attendees discussed the importance of sustainability in the NPL market. Many noted that there is increasing demand from investors for sustainable investments, and that this is also true in the NPL market. Attendees highlighted the need for NPL investors to take into account the social and environmental impact of their investments, and to work towards sustainable solutions that benefit both investors and the wider community.

Overall, the NPL conference provided a forum for attendees to share their thoughts and insights on the state of the market in Europe. While there are still challenges to be addressed, such as the potential for a wave of NPLs and the need for technology and sustainability in the market, attendees expressed optimism about the future and the potential for continued growth and innovation in the NPL market.

I’d like to add a few takeaways of my own the conference.

  • There was a lot of discussion about stream lining the data used in portfolio valuations, EBA is developing a data template that should be used in NPL transactions which will help buyers get necessary data. This is not as big of a concern to us in the Nordics as much as the rest of Europe as we already have a history of high data quality and information about our debtors.
  • We can expect a higher degree of 2nd hand market portfolio trades the coming year across Europe with some countries estimating 25% of all transactions being from the 2nd hand market. In the Nordics, we do not have a long history of 2nd hand trades but this year this will probably change and increase significantly, partly due to NPL backstop starting to have a real effect.
  • Our COO Johan participated in the panel discussion for the Nordics session where there was some discussions about niche banks who might have some turbulence in the near future due to higher interest rates and the need to start selling off debt portfolios if they’re not already experienced in this regard.

Finally, I would like to express my gratitude to Smith Novak for hosting us, it was a great event!

Nordic Market Overview, H1 2023

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Stockholm 2023-03-27

Nice to be right!

Market overview:

We all read the news about Hoist and Lowell making a big deal in the Nordics and that now Hoist are entering the market. Nice to be right as we at Helix Ice already last year indicated that something was about to happen around Hoist. Hoist entering the Nordic market with this type of investment is a positive signal that it will be some fun years head in the Nordic market with new investors to follow. We at Helix Ice welcomes that development and we also think that we during 2023 will see more new players entering the Nordic market. 

Is it a good time to invest in the Nordics? That’s a question which we received more often the last months and our clear answer to that is YES! We currently have a market in the Nordics with a lot of NPL portfolios for sale and especially when it comes to consumer credits. 

Is it a good time to sell of NPL portfolios in the Nordics? It´s a YES! to that as well at least if you have some quality NPL portfolios to sell. The price levels might not be on the same high levels as you could get before the pandemic but there is still a good chance that you can attract enough interested buyers in an auction round and get a nice price level.

Looking at the current cash flow from different investments made and talking to other in our business, we still see that debtors are struggling to keep up their payment plan and voluntary solutions are decreasing. Both Sweden and Finland have also adjusted the amount in the legal process that a debtor can keep and that have given a negative effect on the cash flow.  Despite that the return of investments in the Nordic remains on a decent level and when you invest in the Nordics you can be sure that you will have a steady cash flow which can be used to re-invest in new portfolios.

Parts of the Helix Ice team will also attend the SmithNovak NPL Europe 2023 and we are really looking forward to meet up with our business colleagues from the industry.

NPL Europe 2023 (smithnovak.com)

Please feel free to contact us for more dialogues and opportunities around the Nordic NPL market.

/COO, Johan Gustafsson

Nordic Market Overview, half year report H2 2022

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2022-11-24

Market overview:

We continue to share knowledge regarding the Nordic NPL market and are glad to see that our insights are appreciated among both investors and sellers.

It has continued to be an interesting market to make business in as we have sellers looking for better prices than available on their NPL portfolios but at the moment the purchaser side is the one in a better position. This as a lot of Bank & Finance volumes are out on the market and the sellers don’t really get the price levels they expect or need. Perfect time to invest!

Since the last Market Overview, our summer edition, we have had several interesting dialogues with both new investors and service companies looking into the Nordic market and curious to know more about the current market conditions and potential deals to be made. We are happy to assist in such dialogues and have had success so far in the investment structures that launched.

When it comes to collection on the purchased debts in the Nordics, we noticed that both voluntary payments and legal collection have challenges due to the fact that the debtors have smaller margins as everyone else due to the increasing inflation rate. But we also see really good effects from extra activities and campaigns and on a long-term perspective we are still comfortable with the collection forecasts. 

Please feel free to contact us for more dialogues and opportunities around the Nordic NPL market.

/COO, Johan Gustafsson