Market effects from Russia invading Ukraine

We have all followed the horrible actions in Ukraine the past two plus months and hope it will come to an end soon. The invasion has affected us in different ways, some more than other of course with millions of people fleeing their home country not knowing where they’ll end up or for how long and others forced to defend their country with their own lives at stake.

Our lives here in the Nordics however have run its usual course and the NPL market is still active in the Nordics, just as before. Sweden and Finland are discussing the possibility of becoming NATO members with Finland planning to have a public vote.

Macro trends in Europe since the invasion Feb 24

The Russian MOEX index collapsed the days leading up to the invasion and was down 44% between the 16 and 24 Feb (this after already have been on a decline since October), it has since recovered a bit and is now (4 May) “only” down by 5% since Feb 16.

The Nordic indexes has changed with between -3,2 and +9,6 percent since the invasion (24 Feb to 4 May) with Sweden (OMXS30) declining the most and Denmark (OMXC20) gaining the most. Sweden and Finland (OMXH25) both declined over 8% the days leading up to the invasion (16 – 24 Feb) and then continuing down the following two weeks with Finland dipping 16% 16 Feb – 8 Mar and Sweden almost 13%.

We can also see similar effects in the bigger markets in Europe where UK (FTSE100) and Germany (DAX) both declining between 5 and 8 percent leading up to the invasion and Germany continuing down the weeks after with a total decline of 16,5% (16 Feb – 8 Mar). Both markets have recovered fairly well with UK at +4% and Germany at -1,8% since the invasion (24 Feb – 4 May).